Apple NewsFlow 2.0

One Marketer’s View: Microsoft vs. Apple TV Ads

By now, you’ve all seen Microsoft’s “I’m just not cool enough to be a Mac” television spot. (While I’m Mac-biased) I think it is one of the least effective TV ads in recent memory. From a marketer’s point-of-view, here’s why:

1. It is reactionary to a competitor that Microsoft dwarfs. Apple’s TV ads work because Mac is the underdog to Windows. Doing the opposite shows desperation and actually heightens the Apple brand. “Lauren” even visits the Apple Store first.

2. Promoting solely on price (Lauren can’t find a 17” Mac laptop for under $1000, but finds a Windows model for $699) can be a trap over the long haul. Is “hey, we’re cheaper” the only positive Microsoft can tout?

3. It further commoditizes the PC. That’s not good for anyone in the PC business, except for, maybe, Apple!  Promoting value usually wins out. There’s no hint of the value (features, benefit) of a Windows PC in this ad.

Apple has maintained its price leverage in this recession by building a premium image and focusing on the value of its products. This is what’s driving Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer crazy. And his response is not going down well. At a recent McGraw-Hill Media Summit, Ballmer said of Apple products, “No one’s going to pay $500 more for a logo.” One reporter noted this statement resulted in “audience gasps.”

However you look at it, the last three major TV ads coming from Microsoft (Seinfeld, Reconsider Vista, and this one) have all been reactionary, either to Apple or to the weak consumer and business response to Vista.

Did Ballmer just force these down the throats of the ad agency? They break too many marketing rules. One wonders what the Microsoft retail store will look like. On a positive note, the ads at least are watchable and Lauren is cute.

I must also say that the “not cool enough” comment resonated with me. The Mac TV ads, like some Mac owners, can tend to be a bit smug, sometimes a lot. I get concerned this could backfire for Apple.  

(full disclosure: Cioffi owns AAPL shares)

Retrospective: Stewart vs. Cramer - Artful Cheap Shot

Opinion from Frank Cioffi, Apple Investor News:

I’m a big fan of Jon Stewart. I often learn more from “The Daily Show” than from network newscasts. But his artful, well researched skewering of Jim Cramer this week was still a cheap shot, an easy way to blow off populist steam about the financial crisis.

While I agree with Stewart’s premise that most major financial media failed us, making Cramer the poster boy for the crisis, in essence associating him with the liars and thieves, went too far. It’s also ironic to me that Stewart would attack a financial journalist who consistently provides information that attempts to level the playing field between the institutional financial complex and the average investor.

Jim Cramer saw this crisis looming, and called it before almost anyone else in his famous “rant” months before the October 2007 market peak. He also suggested some investors exit the market on “The Today Show” when the Dow was around 10,500. That advice saved a lot of people almost 4,000 points.

Cramer is an easy target because of his visibility, his bombastic style and because he makes many market and stock recommendations, some of them wrong. CNBC is easy game too. You can pull 20/20-hindsight video clips all day and make a good case against the network.

Of course, it’s not hard to see that most of the large financial media are as much a part of the problem as the financial institutions themselves. As Cramer admitted, “we can do a lot better.”

Yet while the highly publicized “Stewart vs. Cramer” episode will ultimately compel better reporting, I fear it may also further cement black-and-white populist thinking on the financial meltdown. This is a highly complex crisis requiring us to make finer shades-of-grey distinctions about what happened, how to fix it, and how to move forward productively.

One of the lessons of this crisis is the need to distinguish between real content and window dressing. This applies to journalism as well as earnings reports. While I see the clowning Jim Cramer does to be entertaining, I also see his knowledge, perspective and willingness to call it as he sees it. To me, he’ll always be the guy who “got it” a year before Ben Bernanke did.

Similarly, I hope more investors will be able to see beyond the reserved, steady and credible demeanor of the many mainstream financial media which let us down. During the height of the crisis those media maintained their demeanor, when maybe what we really needed was a guy screaming at us.

AAPL & Steve Jobs: Has Sentiment Shifted?

Reports on Steve Jobs’ health crowded the media last month and culminated in Apple’s announcement of  his six-month medical leave. The underlying theme of most reports: Apple, Inc. will be sunk if Steve leaves for good. What a difference a month makes.

A look at Apple Investor News’ “Steve Jobs” news aggregator shows a shift in media sentiment, with more stories focused on COO Tim Cook’s qualifications (he took over during Jobs’ 2004 cancer surgery leave) and even a few “Apple can do well without him” stories. While some analysts still complain it doesn’t have a solid succession plan, it’s clear to me Apple has a deep bench in its executive suite.

So has investor sentiment on the Steve issue shifted? I think so. Investors love certainty and (after Apple reversed itself several times) the leave announcement at least offered some near-term clarity and a pause in the rumor mill. I also think many investors are now anticipating his leave could be a permanent one. The blog post that put me in that camp was from Cult of Mac’s Leander Kahney, who wrote the best-seller “Inside Steve’s Brain.” Kahney speculates that Steve will not return and provides some compelling perspective as to why. Still, I hope he’s wrong. Get well, Steve.

Steve Jobs & Macworld: A PR Veteran’s Prediction

Now that we’ve had a few days and, hopefully, a fresh New Year’s perspective on the latest Steve Jobs media scare and conjecture-fest, let’s assess what really happened and get one high-tech PR expert’s prediction (that would be mine) on what it could mean this week.

Last week’s Steve Jobs newsflow (see Apple Investor News Steve Jobs news category) showed a pattern: several credible journalists with inroads into Apple corporate are telling us Steve’s health is not declining. This group includes CNBC’s Jim Goldman, who always gets the post-new product announcement sitdown TV interview with Jobs, Reuters, and Barron’s Eric Savitz. The WSJ’s Kara Swisher chimed in too, reminding us this is all getting “flat-out macabre.”

So it’s clear Apple is doing it’s best to indirectly dispel the “Steve’s health is declining fast” Gizmodo report without violating its stated policy that Steve’s health is a private matter.

Of course, blogger Robert Scoble took the media prize with his much-reported Tuesday Friendfeed post (“I'm in Palo Alto. Just had yogurt at shop that Steve Jobs eats at frequently. They said he was in a couple of days ago and is in great health”). This reportage was both the oddest and perhaps the most grounded piece of information to hit us all week.

But it was a Reuters report that sealed the deal for me by managing to get an Apple spokesperson to deftly dance around its policy with the words: "...if ever Steve or the board of directors decided that he was no longer capable of doing his job as CEO of Apple, I'm sure they will let you know." 

Now an Apple spokesperson is indeed on the record with a promise to alert the media. If he or she somehow misspoke and Steve is indeed ill, this will have to be clarified shortly or Apple faces SEC scrutiny and media mistrust. If not, with each passing day we can be more assured that Gizmodo’s report is indeed wrong.

Which gets to my prediction: I think we are going to get further clarification on this topic in the coming week, probably to confirm Steve is doing OK. I wouldn’t be surprised if Steve made a remote appearance at Macworld, perhaps showing up via a video iChat during Phil Schiller’s Tuesday keynote. If I was steering Apple’s PR, that’s what I’d do. I’d have him there on webcam bantering with Phil and enjoying some yogurt.

Can One Site Aggregate ALL Apple User News?

Well, we're certainly going to give it a try.  (and you can help...more on that later)

Today we introduce Apple Enthusiast, designed to aggregate all the Apple user news in one, always-updating website. Combined with Apple Investor News, which aggregates all Apple [AAPL] business and financial news, we have the entire Apple universe covered.

Whether it’s user news about the Mac, iPods, iPhones or software, hardware, user tips, hacks, accessories, games, or the best deals for Apple-related products, we’ll have it here. Plus audio and video podcasts.

Like Apple Investor News, Apple Enthusiast sorts news headlines into useful and relevant categories spread over three main site pages, updated continually. Categories include Apple Mac + Mac OS, Apple iPod, Apple iPhone, Apple Rumors, Tips + Tricks, Apple Games, Apple in Living Room, Deals + Sales, Steve Jobs, Apple Developers and 12 other categories. Apple Enthusiast also aggregates video into some of the categories.

What intrigues me most about AE us how different the newsflow is from AIN!  There's some overlap between the two sites, but not as much as I expected. This is testament to the extraordinary amount and diversity of Apple-related news. And to our filters.

You can help make us better by suggesting news sources or new categories. Just contact us here. Enjoy.

MacWorld 2008: What! No Flying Car?

There are two interesting news cycles converging right now, resulting in a sale on AAPL  stock if you’re a long-term investor.

First there’s the overall market and financial newsflow that’s getting increasingly negative and knocking down certain stock sectors for no reason. Sure, we may be heading into recession, but should Intel stock (INTC) really have lost 35 percent of its value in the last four weeks? Probably not. This type of prevailing negative market sentiment is always a good time for bargain hunting.

Then there’s the Apple newsflow. It seems a lot of media were expecting a MacWorld 2008 announcement to match the WHAM of last year’s iPhone announcement. Wednesday’s San Francisco Chronicle actually had an editorial chastising Apple for not “knocking it out of the park” this year at MacWorld. How naïve. iPhone is a game changer. One every five years is amazing enough. Even a few analysts who should know better had unreasonable MacWorld expectations; check the Apple Investor News “AAPL Analyst” single category view for proof.

Then there was the MacWorld announcement that Apple sold 4 million iPhones in its first 200 days, garnering close to 20 percent of the U.S. smartphone market in the process. And this is met with a 10 percent price decline in two days!  I agree with CNBC’s Jim Goldman that both the Intel and Apple declines were overdone and that Apple remains “a long-term island in a sea of short-term waves of uncertainty.”

Of course, it’s natural for such a well-loved company to get pounced on by many of the same media that put it on its pedestal. But a decline with no fundamental news as the cause tells me this is a buying opportunity, courtesy of two converging newsflows. 

Apple Media Coverage Moves To The Mac

With so much focus on the iPhone and the iPod this year, media coverage on Apple’s core business -- the Mac -- has taken a back seat. Even analyst comments have considered the Mac an afterthought. But that’s changing.

Things started a week ago when American Technology analyst Shaw Wu led his Apple comments with projections of stronger-than-expected back-to-school Mac sales. Then Scott Moritz of thestreet.com had an exclusive story on booming Mac sales this quarter. Citigroup followed this week, also leading their comments with the Mac.

On Monday’s “Mad Money,” Jim Cramer focused his positive Apple comments on the iMac, saying the share price of Apple is “undervalued.” He set a $175 target. His Apple comments have been trending more towards the Mac in the last several weeks.

Looking ahead, the Mac will also likely take the lead in Apple’s third quarter earnings report, followed by the release of Mac OS X Leopard (10.5) late in October.

This will be the Mac’s most visible OS release and, in contrast to the lackluster, better-late-than-never release of Microsoft Vista, will bring the Mac to the media forefront. Can’t wait to see what Apple will do with the Mac and PC guys television commercials around Leopard.

Stay tuned for what could be Apple’s biggest Mac attack ever. Oh, and then there’s the holidays.

London Analyst: 18 million 2008 iPhones Will Be Sold at $200 Average

Very early Tuesday morning (about 8:50am London time) I saw a very informative report and series of interviews about the European iPhone launch on CNBC Worldwide.

Per Lindberg, managing director of technology research at Dresdner Kleinwort, was interviewed. Here’s a direct quote:

“In our projection, we believe there will be about 18 million iPhones sold next year at an average selling price of about $200, and that means a very sizable portion of total handset revenues will move from other manufacturers to Apple. (It) will be in the vicinity of 5 percent that Apple will steal from incumbents.”

Lindberg went on to say the iPhone would be available in a “palette of models” by next year and that competitors’ products would, along with the iPhone, inject new interest into the smartphone category. He said the current 2.G iPhone is Apple simply “testing the market” and that the real sales growth will come with the 3G iPhone models, which he expects will be available in early 2008.

Aside from this interesting projection ($200 for an iPhone!), the CNBC Worldwide crew in Europe seems to uncover a level of detailed analysis in their interviews that U.S. television producers might find boring. I found it fascinating and informative.

Steve Jobs Makes The Right Move

Well, it's been an interesting 24 hours of newsflow since the announcement that the 8G iPhone will drop in price to $399.

Those who argued this was just a case of “early adopter blues” were incorrect. This was different, especially so given the extraordinary iPhone buildup.

Steve Jobs did the right thing by offering his half-explanation/half-apology to early iPhone purchasers. The $100 rebate-credit is appropriate given the circumstances.

Now the AAPL question still remains: How are iPhone sales doing? Is this a sign of strength or weakness? Some hints can be found in CNBC’s Jim Goldman’s great blog earlier today, which surveys analyst comments before the announcement of the rebate.

Apple Pi**es Off One Million Customers

It rarely happens, but it did today...Apple made a PR mistake.

Steve Jobs just announced a $200 price cut on the 8G iPhone barely 10 weeks after its introduction. If I were a buyer of the iPhone at $599 when it launched, I'd be angry. We're all accustomed to price drops for new technologies, but this one is stunning. Especially since the media buildup to the iPhone was so unprecedented. I would imagine the core of the Apple faithful who stood in line for the first iPhones must be quite angry today.

The question is: will it have any negative impact given the overwhelming positives of today's iPod and iTunes announcements and the amazing good will Apple is enjoying.

The iPhone price drop also raises some other questions. Does this mean iPhone sales are not as strong as projected? Does it mean the initial price point was too high?

Of course, if you're not among the one million, you're probably thrilled you waited to buy an iPhone. And if you're an iPod customer, you're also thrilled that many iPhone features are now on an iPod.

And if you're an AAPL shareholder, you're probably happy that the iPhone is now an even more amazing proposition compared to RIMM or Palm. Holiday sales could go through the roof.

This will be interesting to watch.